Farmers’ perceptions of climate change, long-term variability and trends in rainfall in Apac district, northern Uganda

Abstract Background Climate change poses severe threats to smallholder farmers' agricultural livelihoods and food security in Sub Saharan Africa. Understanding long-term rainfall trends of variability extremes at local scales perceptions regarding changes climate variables is important planning appropriate adaptation measures change. This paper examines the perception farmers Apac district analyzes trend occurrence seasonal annual district, northern Uganda. A cross-sectional survey design was employed collect data on from 260 randomly selected farmers’ households across two sub-counties by administering semi-structured questionnaires February 2018. Monthly sets Uganda Meteorological Authority (UMA) for period 1980 2019 were also used analyze occurrences study area. The non-parametric Sequential Mann–Kendall (SMK) tests a 5% significance level detect mean abrupt points. Results majority respondents (87%) perceived decrease precipitation over past 39 years. plot forward regression u ( t i ) values backward u’ showed interactions indicating trends, lower upper limits points different cropping seasons. Analysis historical series monthly an March, April, May (MAM) season 1982. Although September, October November (SON) did not show significant change, there (p < 0.05) increase above limit 1994 date. Conclusion MAM SON seasons highly variable time within years (1980–2019), while June, July, August (JJA) realize same that (MAM SON) experienced remarkable variations rainfall. This, therefore, provides basis government strengthen provision effective tailored advisory service aid assist land-use managers developing management strategies effects